A meaningful resolution will be a major plus for the economy and small business owners." So while hiring plans are heating up, plenty of owners are still holding back on bigger bets.Labor remains the sharpest pain point. Owners reporting job openings they could not fill rose 4 points to 36%, the highest share since Jun
Small business sentiment climbed to an 11 month high in July, with the National Federation of Independent Business reporting its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, a level not seen since August 2025 and well above the 52 year historical average of 98.0. The gain hints that a weak July jobs report may prove to be a blip rather than the start of a downturn.
The jump was driven largely by a rebound in the NFIB's employment index, which rose 1.9 points to 102.1 after four straight monthly declines. More striking was the share of owners who said they plan to add jobs over the next three months: it jumped 9.0 points to 20%, the highest reading since October 2022. That comes just days after the government reported an unexpected drop in nonfarm payrolls for July, along with sizable downward revisions to the May and June figures. Some economists have pointed to worker shortages, not weak demand, as the real culprit behind those soft payroll numbers.
Why small business sentiment is rising even as uncertainty grows
Optimism and unease are climbing together this cycle. The NFIB's uncertainty index rose 2 points to 91, with more owners saying they are unsure whether now is a good time to expand or to commit to capital spending. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg tied the hesitation to geopolitical tension, saying uncertainty
