Fed rate hike odds for the central bank's September meeting have jumped to roughly 82%, according to fed funds futures data cited by CNBC, up more than 29…
Fed rate hike odds for the central bank's September meeting have jumped to roughly 82%, according to fed funds futures data cited by CNBC, up more than 29 percentage points from just a week earlier. The surge follows Brent crude's climb past $100 a barrel on Thursday, its first time above that mark since late May.
Why Traders Are Betting on a September Move
Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at next week's meeting, keeping the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. But futures markets now put the odds of a quarter point increase at that same meeting near 38%, compared with under 12% just seven days ago. On Kalshi, the prediction market platform, contracts tied to a September quarter point hike traded at 48% by Thursday afternoon, up from around 30% at the start of the week.
Gas Prices and Jobless Claims Add Pressure
AAA reported the national average price for a gallon of gasoline crossed $4 this week, a level not seen in more than a month. Meanwhile, Thursday's labor data gave the Fed more room to focus on inflation: initial unemployment claims fell to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, the lowest count since 1969, when the United States had only about 60% of its current population.