The Trump Iran truce wavers after new airstrikes and revoked oil sanctions, with officials split on whether the ceasefire can survive.
The Trump Iran truce reached last month is neither dead nor functioning after a two day exchange of airstrikes and the reimposition of US oil sanctions left the agreement in limbo this week.
What Happened to the Ceasefire Deal
The memorandum of understanding took effect June 18 with three goals: stop the fighting, ease sanctions on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping. None of that has happened in full. President Donald Trump declared the deal "over" on Wednesday, yet no side has formally torn it up, and pieces of it are still technically in force.
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the situation bluntly. "The MOU is unraveling," she said, "but I don't think it will completely collapse, because I don't think either side has an interest in returning to full conflict."
Fresh Strikes and a Sanctions Reversal
The US and Iran spent this week accusing each other of breaking the truce, trading strikes that raised tension without escalating to the intensity seen in the early days of the conflict. Oil prices climbed as a result, though they remain well below the peaks recorded in March.
The US Treasury added fuel to the standoff Tuesday by revoking a waiver on sanctioned Iranian oil that had been granted just last month. Officials said the reversal came in response to attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the move stripped Washington of some negotiating leverage. His verdict was stark: "This MOU, as it is currently written, is dead."
Trump's NATO Comments and the Path Back to Talks
At the NATO summit in Turkey this week, Trump called Iranian officials "scum" and said more negotiations would be a "waste of time." He left the door open slightly, adding that his envoys could pursue a deal on their own terms.
Tom Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said any renewed negotiation would likely produce something different from the current memorandum rather than a revival of it. "I don't know if the memorandum is going to be the basis going forward," he said. "I imagine both sides are going to insist on clarifying changes that make it indisputable that their side is correct."
Hopes for a quicker resumption of talks, encouraged earlier in the week by Qatari mediators and by Trump himself, faded once the weeklong funeral for Iran's former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei concluded Thursday. He was assassinated on the first day of the conflict more than four months ago, and his burial did not produce the diplomatic opening some had anticipated.
Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill Thursday. Iran maintains it controls the passage, a claim the US rejects outright. US Central Command stated Thursday that "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz."
The US has not reinstated the blockade it lifted under the original agreement, though Trump suggested Wednesday that could change. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said a renewed blockade, new sanctions, or fresh US military deployments in the region would signal the memorandum has truly collapsed. "Until you see these things," he said, "expect it to be a ghost operating in the background."
Domestic Pressure on Trump
Trump faces criticism at home over the war's effect on gasoline prices as the November midterm elections approach, and he has shown little enthusiasm for prolonging military action. "I don't think it's going to start again," he told reporters at the NATO summit. "I think it's going to go very quickly."
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Trump ceasefire Iran?
The ceasefire technically remains in place but is not being fully honored by either side, with strikes continuing this week and key terms unmet.
Will Trump ceasefire Iran?
Trump has said the deal is
