SpaceX stock (SPCX) has fallen from its $225 peak. See what's behind the drop and what Nasdaq 100 inclusion and earnings could bring next.
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), the rocket and satellite company built around reusable launch vehicles and its Starlink broadband network, has spent its first weeks as a public company on a wild ride. SpaceX stock priced its IPO at $150 a share on June 12, spiked to $225.64 within days, then slid back toward earth, closing at $157.97 on July 1, a gain of only about 5% from the offer price.
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares opened at $150 on June 12 and hit an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 before retreating.
- The stock closed at $157.97 on July 1, up roughly 5% from its IPO price.
- A $25 billion bond offering announced June 22 sent shares down more than 12% that day, to $154.60.
- SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, forcing index funds to buy in.
- The company's first earnings report as a public entity is expected in August.
Why the Early SpaceX Rally Faded
IPO pops often say more about scarcity than fundamentals. Investors who had waited years for a chance to own a piece of SpaceX piled in during the first days of trading, chasing the kind of story that turned early believers in Amazon or Nvidia into long term winners. Once that initial wave of buyers had filled their orders, the natural buying pressure that pushed shares to $225.64 started to dry up, and the stock drifted back toward its issue price.
The bigger jolt came on June 22, when SpaceX announced plans to raise $25 billion through a bond sale. Coming so soon after a high profile IPO, the debt offering reminded investors just how much cash the company burns building rockets, satellites and ground infrastructure. Shares fell more than 12% that day alone, closing at $154.60, and the stock has struggled to reclaim much ground since.
Valuation, Momentum and Yield on SpaceX Stock
Because SpaceX only began trading in June, there is no established price to earnings ratio, EPS figure or dividend history to lean on yet, and the company has not disclosed a market capitalization consistent enough to cite with confidence at this stage. That leaves momentum as the clearest gauge available. The stock's 52 week range so far runs from the June 16 intraday high of $225.64 down to a brief dip below $150 in late June, a swing of more than 30% in barely three weeks. That kind of volatility points to a stock still searching for a stable trading level rather than one settled into a valuation backed by steady earnings.
The bull case rests on scale and momentum: joining the Nasdaq 100 on July 7 means index funds and ETFs tracking that benchmark must buy shares regardless of price, which could offer near term support. Optimists also point to SpaceX's dominant position in commercial launches and the growth of Starlink as reasons the stock could eventually justify a premium once real earnings data arrives.
The bear case centers on that same lack of a track record. Without a P/E ratio, EPS history or dividend to anchor expectations, the stock trades largely on sentiment and headlines like the bond offering, which unsettled investors already digesting a hefty valuation. Heavy capital spending needs, evidenced by the $25 billion debt raise, could keep pressure on shares until profitability, or clear signs of it, become visible in financial reports.
What Comes Next for SpaceX Stock
Two dates loom over the next two months. The Nasdaq 100 inclusion on July 7 forces mechanical buying from index tracking funds, which could nudge shares upward in the short run regardless of sentiment. Then in August, SpaceX is due to post its first earnings report as a public company. Given how sharply the stock has already swung on far less consequential news, that release seems unlikely to pass quietly, whatever the numbers show.
